As the largest producer and the most important application market, my country's position in the global lithium-ion battery industry has been further enhanced. Since the beginning of this year, with the steady adjustment of new energy vehicle support policies, the growth rate of my country's new energy vehicle production has further stabilized, and power batteries will drive the continuous and rapid growth of my country's lithium-ion battery scale in the future.
In 2016, driven by the continuous and rapid growth of new energy vehicle production, my country's lithium-ion battery industry continued to maintain a rapid growth trend. A number of key enterprises have grown rapidly, and BYD has ranked among the top four in the world for the first time. As the largest producer and the most important application market, my country's position in the global lithium-ion battery industry has been further enhanced. Since the beginning of this year, with the steady adjustment of new energy vehicle support policies, the growth rate of my country's new energy vehicle production has further stabilized, and power batteries will drive the continuous and rapid growth of my country's lithium-ion battery scale in the future.
Trend 1: The scale of the industry is growing steadily, and China's advantages are expected to expand
In 2017, the growth rate of the main application market of lithium-ion batteries slowed down. In terms of consumer products, the growth rate of global mobile phone production will further drop to around 5%, while the output of notebook computers and tablet computers will continue to decline. On the other hand, the global production of electric vehicles will exceed 1.2 million units, the growth rate will be lower than that in 2016, and the growth rate of lithium-ion battery electric bicycle production will remain at around 15%. Driven by this, it is estimated that the scale of the global lithium-ion battery industry in 2017 will exceed 42 billion US dollars, maintaining steady growth, and the growth rate will drop by 4 percentage points compared with 2016. Under the continuous promotion of new energy vehicle promotion policies, China's electric vehicle production reached 650,000 in 2017, and its share in the global electric vehicle market will further increase. As the global influence of Chinese consumer electronics companies continues to increase, the market share of Chinese companies in mobile phones, notebook computers, tablet computers and other consumer products has steadily increased, and Chinese lithium-ion battery companies will gain more market space. It is estimated that in 2017 China It will account for 43% of the global lithium-ion battery market, an increase of 3 percentage points from 2016, further expanding the distance with Japan and South Korea.
Trend 2: Power batteries lead the growth, and the market share will exceed 60%
Driven by my country's new energy vehicles, my country's power batteries continued to maintain rapid growth in 2016, accounting for 52% of the market, contributing 80% to the growth of the lithium-ion battery industry in 2016. In 2017, as domestic mobile phone brands have basically occupied the domestic market, and it is more difficult to develop the international market, my country's mobile phone production will no longer grow at a rate of about 20% in 2016, and the growth rate is expected to drop to about 10%; The impact of sales of computers and tablet computers will be further weakened. The decline in the output of notebook computers and tablet computers will continue to narrow, but it will still maintain a downward trend. Other consumer products such as wearable devices and drones are expected to show a rapid growth momentum, but the overall scale is relatively low. Generally speaking, the market demand for consumer lithium-ion batteries will maintain a low growth rate of about 3% in 2017. Under the strong promotion of national financial subsidies, my country's new energy vehicle market is expected to expand to 650,000 vehicles in 2017, a year-on-year increase of 25%. The market for lithium-ion battery electric bicycles is expected to reach 5 million vehicles, plus power tools and other fields. The market size of power lithium-ion batteries is expected to reach 30GWh, a year-on-year increase of about 30%. On the whole, in 2017, my country's power battery will lead the growth of my country's lithium-ion battery market, and its proportion is expected to exceed 60%. The contribution rate of power battery to the growth of my country's lithium-ion battery industry will exceed 90%.
Trend 3: Subsidies are declining rapidly, and the growth rate of new energy vehicles is declining
At the end of 2016, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "Notice on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"). According to the requirements of the "Notice", the subsidy for new energy passenger vehicles has not changed much, and it is only reduced by 20% according to the established subsidy reduction mechanism. The substantial decline in battery subsidies is much higher than previous market expectations, and higher technical requirements are put forward. At the same time, cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Beijing and other fast-promoting new energy vehicles have also introduced follow-up subsidy programs. The local subsidy amount is no longer 1:1 compared to the state subsidy, but lower than the state subsidy. And as time goes on, this ratio gradually decreases. For example, the "Notice on Printing and Distributing the Interim Measures for the Administration of Local Subsidies for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in Tianjin" issued by Tianjin stipulates that from 2016 to 2020, the local subsidy standards for new energy passenger vehicles and special vehicles in each year are based on the national subsidy standards. 100%, 70%, 60%, 50% and 40% of the subsidy standard are implemented.
It can be seen that starting from 2017, the subsidies given by the state and local finance to new energy vehicles will be greatly reduced, which will obviously affect the growth rate of my country's new energy vehicle production and sales. It is estimated that in 2017, the output of new energy vehicles in my country will be around 650,000, and the growth rate will further decline to 25%, down 11 percentage points from 2016.
Trend 4: The application of new technologies is accelerated, and disruptive products are expected
With the increasing application of lithium-ion batteries in various fields, especially in electric vehicles, new energy, military and other fields, countries and major enterprises have increased their R&D support. At the same time, the preparation technology of advanced materials such as graphene and nanomaterials has been continuously improved, and the integration with the research and development of lithium-ion batteries has been accelerated. The innovation of the lithium-ion battery industry has accelerated. Such as Huawei's high-temperature and long-life graphene-based lithium-ion battery, Tunghsu Group's "ene king", and the all-solid-state lithium-ion battery developed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences. At present, the competition in the power battery market is becoming increasingly fierce, and major companies have developed targeted new products aiming at specific market needs, and implemented a dislocation competition strategy in order to seize the lithium-ion battery market. In the future, with the continuous progress of various new technologies, new materials including silicon-carbon composite materials and solid-state electrolytes are expected to be widely used in lithium-ion batteries, and new materials may appear in specific application fields such as wearable devices and special environments. disruptive lithium-ion battery products.
Trend 5: Li-ion battery performance is limited, and it will take time for new battery technology to be commercialized
As lithium-ion batteries are widely used in smart terminal products, new energy vehicles and other fields, their performance weaknesses such as low specific energy, long charging time, and easy fire have become increasingly prominent, which has become one of the key factors restricting their development. However, due to the influence of the existing system architecture and key cathode materials, the energy density of the lithium-ion battery of the existing system is basically difficult to exceed 300Wh/kg, and the performance of the lithium-ion battery of the existing system is difficult to meet the needs of future power batteries. New battery technology R&D and industrialization are imminent. At present, most new battery technologies such as lithium-sulfur batteries, lithium-air batteries, aluminum-graphite dual-ion batteries, lithium ceramic batteries, and new lithium-oxygen batteries are in the laboratory research stage. According to the industrialization process of technological achievements, large-scale application and promotion requires at least more than 10 years. Considering the safety factor of the battery, the verification time may be longer. For some gradually mature technologies, such as dual-carbon batteries, solid-state lithium-ion batteries, etc., the production process is not mature, and the core technology is in the hands of one or two companies, the output is limited and the price is high, it is difficult to achieve large-scale application in the near future . As for technologies such as supercapacitors, hydrogen fuel cells, and zinc and lithium metal fuel cells that have already started small-scale production, the prices are high, and it will take some time for the market to accept them.
Trend 6: The power battery policy is abruptly changed, and the industrial structure is facing a major adjustment
In November 2016, the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially solicited opinions from all walks of life on the "Automotive Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions (2017)" (Draft for Comment). As soon as this article came out, it immediately attracted great attention in the lithium-ion battery industry. "Automotive Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions (2017)" (Draft for Comment) has greatly improved the annual production capacity index requirements of lithium-ion power batteries based on the "Automotive Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions" issued and implemented in 2015, from the original 0.2GWh /year to 8GWh/year. At present, there are only a handful of enterprises in our country that can meet this requirement. Although it is only a draft for comments, the production capacity requirement is not necessarily 8GWh/year when it is finally announced for implementation, and it is likely to be lower than this figure. However, there may be two implementation results: one is that only a few companies meet the conditions and have a market, and the supply exceeds demand, while a large number of other companies that do not meet the requirements have no market and are difficult to survive; the other is that the threshold is lowered and everyone expands production. With more than 30 qualified companies, the production capacity of power batteries has increased significantly, and the imbalance between supply and demand has intensified.
At present, the competition in the lithium-ion power battery market is very fierce, and the industry is at a critical stage of turning. No matter which outcome occurs, my country's lithium-ion battery industry pattern may face major adjustments.
Trend 7: The advantages of key enterprises are consolidated, and the industry concentration is further improved
In 2016, my country's new energy vehicle production continued to grow, but the power battery market concentration was further improved. The market share of the top 10 power battery suppliers rose from less than 70% in 2015 to 82% in 2016. The explosive growth of new energy vehicle production in 2015 generally benefited many companies in the power battery industry. In 2016, the growth of the new energy vehicle market made more profits for a few companies, and the advantages of key enterprises were gradually established. BYD, CATL, Waterma, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Tianjin Lishen and other key enterprises have raised funds through the stock market, financing and other means, and further expanded their production capacity on the basis of the expansion in 2015, with an investment amount of more than 3 billion yuan. Although many small and medium-sized power battery companies are also investing in expanding production, the investment amount is limited. Due to the advantages of key enterprises in terms of brand, influence and technical level, their production capacity expansion is fast and they have a good market foundation, and the scale effect is further highlighted. Many small and medium-sized power battery manufacturers want to enter the procurement of new energy vehicle manufacturers It takes a lot of manpower and material resources and a long time to verify the system.
Therefore, it is expected that in 2017, the leading advantages of key enterprises will continue to consolidate, and their market share in the power battery market will further increase. The market share of the top 10 suppliers will exceed 87%, an increase of more than 5 percentage points compared with 2016.
Trend 8: Formal implementation of normative conditions, and the role to be tested by the market
In September 2015, the "Lithium-ion Battery Industry Specification Conditions" (hereinafter referred to as "Regulation Conditions") was officially released and implemented. After procedures such as reporting, approval, and verification, the first batch of companies that met the "Regulation Conditions" was announced in 2017. The list was released in 2017 . The reason why it has been more than a year is mainly because the number of reported companies is large, covering key materials, lithium-ion batteries, and multiple sub-sectors. In order to ensure the accuracy of the first batch of announcements, the on-site verification took a lot of time. Despite the announcement of the first batch of lists, it is not yet known how effective the implementation of the "Regulation Conditions" will be in the current hot market for power batteries. According to the implementation of the "Regulations for the Automotive Power Battery Industry", the "Regulations for the Automotive Power Battery Industry" released 5 batches of lists, which basically included the main lithium-ion power battery companies. Since there are only production capacity requirements and the lack of specific technical indicators, the production capacity has been accelerated. Growth has not played a significant role in regulating the development of the industry. Although the "Li-ion Battery Industry Standard Conditions" has set technical indicators, the requirements are not high, and more than 70% of enterprises can meet them. At present, there are more than 400 upstream and downstream enterprises in my country's lithium-ion battery industry, and the development level is uneven. How much the implementation of the "Lithium-ion Battery Industry Standard Conditions" can play remains to be tested by the market.
Trend 9: New production capacity is released one after another, and the crisis of overcapacity is highlighted
With the strong growth of market demand and the influx of a large amount of social capital, the production capacity planning of lithium-ion power battery manufacturers began to "great leap forward" in the second half of 2015. According to incomplete statistics, in 2016, the planned production capacity of my country's power battery enterprises reached 110-130GWh. Based on the 50% capacity utilization rate, the output in 2016 will reach 55-65GWh. According to the production of 517,000 electric vehicles in 2016, the market demand for power batteries is about 20GWh. In addition to lithium-ion bicycles, power tools and other fields, the market demand for lithium-ion power batteries is about 23GWh. The market demand is significantly lower than the expected production capacity, and my country's lithium-ion power battery market has already experienced an oversupply situation. In 2016, the investment amount of my country's lithium-ion power battery field exceeded 70 billion yuan (contract amount) to basically be completed and put into production in 2017. In addition, some enterprises have already built and put into operation in 2016, and will further release production capacity in 2017. It is estimated that my country's power battery production capacity will be in 2017. will reach 200GWh/year. In 2017, the growth of lithium-ion battery market demand is limited. In particular, the slowdown in the growth rate of new energy vehicles makes the growth of power battery demand less than expected, and the crisis of power battery overcapacity will begin to become prominent. Since positive and negative materials, separators, electrolytes and other supporting materials have also been actively expanding production in the past year or two, production capacity will also grow rapidly in 2017, and the excess capacity of power batteries will also make all links in the lithium-ion battery industry chain through conduction. There are various levels of supply and demand imbalances.
Trend 10: The investment intensity has weakened significantly, and the financial market has stabilized
In the two years from 2015 to 2016, the investment in the field of lithium-ion batteries exceeded 200 billion yuan, the enthusiasm of enterprises for investment was very high, and the financial market was very hot. The demand for power batteries is high, and investment is urgently needed to expand production capacity to meet market demand; on the other hand, the profit margin of power batteries is very high, exceeding 50%, which is very suitable for investment, including many listed companies. Through acquisitions, investments and other means have set foot in it. In 2017, the high-speed growth of my country's new energy vehicle market is no longer, and the development has returned to normal. The growth of power battery market demand growth is expected to decline significantly. In addition, the existing production capacity is sufficient to meet the demand of my country's new energy vehicle market in the next five years, and the investment motivation is obviously insufficient. In addition, in 2017, the problem of structural overcapacity of power battery capacity will become more prominent, which will intensify the market competition. Some companies will reduce prices in order to win orders. The overall profit margin of the industry will decline significantly, and the return on investment will also decline. In addition, the investment in 2016 has not been fully implemented, and the market needs to digest it in 2017. On the whole, the investment enthusiasm of the lithium-ion battery industry in 2017 has subsided significantly, and the investment intensity will be significantly weakened.